
Monday, June 18, 2007
8 comments:
- NG said...
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I gotta wonder whether "Mick" is referring to Detective James McLaughlin of the Keene, NH PD.
He'd be capable of doing something sinister as embedding porn on an MP3. -
5:59 PM
- Sunny said...
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THEY will do anything to push their moral agenda.
Nothing surprises me anymore.
Nothing. -
6:13 PM
- Eddie said...
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It seems to me the best way to protect children and prevent these offenses is to strengthen agencies like the Department for Children and Families. Since most children who are physically molested are done so by a family member, this only makes sense.
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9:54 PM
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Big Dorq said...
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Hi, Sunny. I want you to know that I know how taxing it is to keep a blog about this subject, especially when it seems the whole world is against you. You are a beautiful soul, and I thank you for your compassion and selflessness.
I also want to thank you for being the one who led me to the Miami New Times article and the comments there. I wish the event had taken place, but perhaps it will still do so and with greater impact now that it has met such resistance.
I was wondering if you know whether the commenter who wrote about the Dateline series arrest statistics was accurate, or where those names are listed, or if at all. If it is true that "exactly one" convicted sex offender was among the 250 arrested, then that has an implication that should shatter, abolish, and evaporate everyone's preconceptions about sex offenses and the people committing them. That implication also seems to support what I have found in my own analysis of the numbers behind the problem.
In my own analysis, I estimate that only around 2% of the people committing sexual offenses of any shade are getting caught. I also estimate the number of sexual crime VICTIMS (who may have more than one crime perpetrated against them) among the living population in the United States to be around 60 million people. For the sake of simplicity, I assume that only one offense was perpetrated against each victim (which I know is most likely untrue, but it shows how truly conservative I am being with my estimations). In the US, there are presently about 500,000 (or 0.5 million) registered sex offenders, and since registration is now retroactively compulsory and mandatory for everyone ever convicted, that makes the two numbers (convictions and registrations) relatively equal. Dividing the number of crimes into the total number of convictions gives just 0.83% - less than one percent of sexual criminals are getting arrested and convicted. It’s not as simple as that, because people who molest children or rape others tend to have more than one victim, while those other extreme “sex offenders” who kiss their classmates or have sex with their girlfriends tend to have no victims at all. I haven’t crunched the numbers on these divisions, yet, so I think it’s conservative again to just jack up my percentage estimate to an even 2%. In all probability, my estimate of sexual victims is low, my estimate of sexual crimes is low, and my estimate of the percentage getting caught is way high. Even with these ultra-conservative estimates, it’s an extraordinarily serious problem because it means that roughly one out of every five people is a sexual criminal who has not been caught. Nevertheless, hover there at 2% with me for a minute…
Now, back to Dateline: if we look at the show having been a random sampling (which in effect it was, considering that the men came seeking them), then we have a more serious problem than even I have estimated. If only one out of 250 people acting out on deviant sexual fantasies has already been caught for doing so, then that means we need to multiply the number of ALL WHO HAVE BEEN CAUGHT by that same ratio of 1 to 249. Stay with me, here…
249 times 500,000 equals 124.5 million people.
There are only 300 million people in the United States.
Are more than two-fifths of us really sexual deviants? Was my “way high” estimate more than twice too LOW?
This certainly would help explain the hysteria, irrational approaches, unmitigated hatred, etc., surrounding the issue.
It seems that nothing is as it seems.
I think that acknowledging this has to be the first step toward a true rehabilitation of not only sexually deviant criminals, but more importantly of our society and the attitudes it is blindly purveying.
The way things are going there has been a steady decline in arrests for sex crimes over at least the past ten years (1996 through 2006, the latest available data). Fewer and fewer arrests for sex crimes have been made over the past ten years (though you’d never know it watching TV or listening to the media). The reason, however, is not that fewer crimes have been taking place, nor is it that the criminals have gotten smarter (Dateline being a great example of that). The reason is simply that the atmosphere has become so imbalanced and toxic that reasonable people are CHOOSING not to pursue legal remedies for the sexual crimes committed against them. One of the most pernicious effects of the hysteria has been not that it might be driving convicted offenders underground, but that it has demonstrably driven victims of sexual crime underground.
You’re on the right side, Sunny. Don’t ever doubt it. But if it gets to where it is taking a visible toll on your life, leave it and delete the blog. You will not be losing by doing so, and by failing to do so you could lose more. The fight for what is right will go on, and some people can’t be argued out of just being plain old stupid. And remember that if they’re really, really vitriolic, then they probably hate what’s inside them and are convinced that such hate is the only thing that can keep it at bay. Going through their whole lives trying to defeat the demons, they try everything, and fail, and so they pronounce with authority that no one can ever be cured of it. Feel sorry for them, too, for they too could find freedom if they would only defeat their denial and seek help.
Good night. -
12:44 AM
- Sunny said...
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If it is true that "exactly one" convicted sex offender was among the 250 arrested, then that has an implication that should shatter, abolish, and evaporate everyone's preconceptions about sex offenses and the people committing them.
Try as I might, I cannot locate that statistic in the comments....if you could point me in the right direction, I might be able to track down that info for you; however, your analysis speaks volumes-that the numbers just don't add up.
If only one out of 250 people acting out on deviant sexual fantasies has already been caught for doing so, then that means we need to multiply the number of ALL WHO HAVE BEEN CAUGHT by that same ratio of 1 to 249. Stay with me, here…
249 times 500,000 equals 124.5 million people.
There are only 300 million people in the United States.
Nothing IS what is seems...you are so right.
I do so much appreciate your kind words...and your observations are right on the mark...for those of us involved in this issue, we do have to take a break once in awhile, just to regain mental health to come back recharged and fight the good fight.
Take care and if you get the chance, direct me to the Dateline stat...I'll research that info.
Have a great day!
Best,
Sunny -
11:53 AM
- Sunny said...
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Hi Eddie...
I'm not certain what the answer is anymore. DCF is so overwhelmed now, I'm not certain what else can be done, with the exception of a more proactive agenda...but again, because the state of Florida has made everyone that works with kids a mandated reporter, I think it's safe to say that DCF spends most of their time checking out reports and with follow up. And people are scared to death of DCF...what many don't realize is the department is a great source for social services and resources...but the agency is tainted because of the nature of the work assigned.
And it will only get worse for DCF because of a proposed national registry for child abusers that would allow the history of those persons with DCF involvement to be shared interstate.
I've heard of a national drug offender list as well.
Soon, everyone will be on a list.
Eddie, it always starts with a powerless group, a group no one cares about...but eventually, it will catch up to mainstream America-possibly a DUI registry...
This is the thing about civil liberties-in this country, we all are supposed to have that right...if we don't hang together for liberty for all, we will all end up with no civil liberties.
I grew up in the age of Dr. King and his leadership through true civil unrest. I never thought we would be back to Americans vs Americans. I challenge your age group to keep any eye on the erosion of our civil rights and liberties...because Eddie, I'm getting tired....:)
Thanks as always for stopping by.
Sunny -
12:08 PM
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Big Dorq said...
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Well... Now I have no idea where I read that. I just searched and searched and I couldn't find it. There was one link I had bookmarked that has apparently been removed, so maybe it had been there. But I don't really know.
I have tried much in vain to find a published list of all the men arrested as a result of the stings, because I wanted to verify the data myself by cross referencing the names to a national sex offender registry. If you come across a link to such a list, please do share. -
5:46 PM
- Sunny said...
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Will do. Thanks for checking. Share the same, should you find the link.
:)
Sunny -
6:52 PM
First-I'd like to thank MiamiNew Times for continuing to offer the comment section for those Americans impacted by residency laws and the sex offender laws as a whole. As of this date, 91 comments have posted since Friday, June 15th. Thoughts of hope quickly disintegrated into comments of fury upon learning that a peaceful assembly of women was oppressed by Miami police. If you or someone you know is impacted by these politically motivated offender laws, the links provided here are available for your knowledge and your use to educate the public. Pass them on.
My hopes are that mainstream America is reading and learning how everyday American families are struggling against this perpetuation by law enforcement and politicians to use fear regarding our children against the American public.
A comment from mick caught my attention. Pay very close attention to his words. This sort of scenario is happening throughout this country-it knows no age boundary-it recognizes no gender. We hear so much from law enforcement about "protecting children online"...parents, when talking with your kids about the "dangers of the Internet", I would suggest discussing the flip side as well-how law enforcement-not a sex offender-could be on the other side of the chat-or the music download, as so well stated by mick.
"...The alleged heinous crime? Unknowingly downloading offensive images hidden in music files. Once viewed and realized to be child porn they were deleted. The detective that had put them there was quick to find the ip address get a warrant from a computer illiterate Judge. It took several weeks for the forensic experts to retrieve the deleted files and bring forth charges. No one was ever harmed..."
Panel attempts to debunk myths about online predators.
The public impression is that online predators are "Internet pedophiles who've moved the playground into your living room," said David Finkelhor, director of the Crimes against Children Research Center (CCRC) at the University of New Hampshire.
The common wisdom is that predators target young children by pretending to children themselves, and they lure children in using personal information gained by trickery or gathered from the Internet, Finkelhor said. Likewise, society thinks believes predators stalk children, abduct, and rape them, "or even worse," he said.
But, actually, teens, rather than young children, are usually the victims of the crimes, Finkelhor said. Victims often run away from home to be with adults they met online, fall in love with the offenders, and work against police efforts to help them, Finkelhor said.
Only 5 per cent of cases involve violence, only 3 per cent involve abduction, and only 4 per cent of offenders concealed their ages from victims, Finkelhor said. And 80 per cent were "quite explicit" about their sexual intentions.
While authorities work with parents to try to protect kids, the kids most at risk have little trust in their parents. They've been victims of physical or sexual abuse, or have substantial conflicts in their family, he said.
Young people often go online to escape from bad situations at home, said danah boyd, a researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, who studies how young people interact online.
While society views the home as a safe haven, and the Internet as a dangerous jungle filled with predators, for many at-risk young people, the reverse is true. They go online to escape from abusive or absent parents, or - in affluent homes especially - to escape the overwhelming pressure to achieve.
Internet predation needs to be put into perspective. Only 7 per cent of statutory rape arrests were the result of Internet-initiated activities, said Michele Ybarra, president of Internet Solutions for Kids, a non-profit for promoting new methods of improving health and safety of young people.
Cyberbullying is an equally serious threat that's underemphasized.
Young people are often resistant to sexual solicitations, Boyd said. They lump sexual solicitations with online marketing, as nuisances that they delete and move on.
The host of the panel, the Congressional Internet Caucus Advisory Committee, is an Internet industry association whose mission is to work with lawmakers on Internet issues.
Because this research changes everything American families have been force fed by our political leaders.
Your kids have been used in the Fear game.
Demand an explanation.
Today.
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Daily Kos Comments here.
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Update
Article published Jul 25, 2007
UNH professor talks to Congress about online predators, sex crimes
DURHAM — The majority of online sex crime victims are not children, but rather teenagers who are well aware of the age and sexual intentions of the offender, according to a University of New Hampshire professor.
David Finkelhor, director of the Crimes Against Children Research Center at UNH, testified before Congress Tuesday that the public's perception of Internet pedophiles tricking children into revealing personal information and then stalking or abducting them is false. Most Internet sex crimes begin with weeks of explicit conversations that exploit a teen's sexual curiosity and desire for romance and adventure, according to Finkelhor.
"These are not mostly violent sex crimes but criminal seductions that take advantage of common teenage vulnerabilities," he said.
In his testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Finkelhor said that 73 percent of underage victims met offenders multiple times for multiple sexual encounters, and that in half of the cases, police described the victim as being in love or feeling a close relationship with the offender. One quarter of victims also ran away from home to be with the offender.
Finkelhor added that deception was not a factor in most cases. He said that only 5 percent of offenders concealed their age and that in 80 percent of the crimes, the adults were explicit about their sexual intentions.
Finkelhor said that victims are often troubled youths with histories of family turmoil and physical and sexual abuse. He said that children are at risk when they are willing to talk about sex online with strangers or interact with people on sex sites and in chat rooms.
As an example, Finkelhor detailed the case of a 13-year-old girl from a divorced family who had met with a 45-year-old man for multiple sexual encounters in motel rooms. He said that the relationship began when the computer-savvy teen entered sex-oriented chat rooms and began conversing with the man, who flattered her, engaged in intimate conversations, and gave her gifts and jewelry. At the time of the man's arrest, the girl resisted cooperating with police.
"To prevent these crimes, we have to take on more awkward and complicated topics and start with an acceptance of the fact that some teens are curious about sex and looking for romance and adventure," Finkelhor said.
He said that prevention efforts should focus on educating teens about drawbacks of a sexual relationship with an adult, such as jail, bad press, and public embarrassment, and use strategies that are effective for communicating with teenagers.
"Like discouraging kids from smoking or drinking, the simple scare tactics often don't work. This challenge too may require deft maneuvering within the teenage psychology to get the message to stick," he said.
Finkelhor added that law enforcement agencies should receive training on how to work with teenage victims and develop new ways for teens to report come-ons and sexual picture requests.
Last week, the Crimes Against Children Research Center announced that one in 25 youth Internet users received a request for a sexual picture of themselves during the last year.
Researchers at UNH also found that only 5 percent of online sex crimes against children involved violence when meetings occurred, and that only 3 percent included an abduction.
The center's research included data from hundreds of national cases as well as two sample surveys of youth Internet users.